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ジム・インテグレーテッド・シッピング・サービシズ【ZIM】の掲示板 2022/03/29〜2022/04/29

Freight waves

タイトル Commodity shipping stocks are trouncing Dow transport average

Container stocks

Unlike other ocean shipping segments, container stocks have fallen by double digits since the end of March.

They’ve been weighed by the same consumer demand fears that are hitting the transport index, and have given back much of their YTD gains.

However, to put the recent drop in context, container shipping shares have been the best-performing shipping equities since the onset of COVID. Just one example: On Thursday, stock of container-ship leasing company Danaos (NYSE: DAC) closed down 17% from its high on March 28. Yet it was still trading 16 times higher than it was in January 2020, pre-COVID.

Container-ship lessor stocks have fallen recently despite these companies boasting several years of contracted revenue booked at record rates, shielding them from exposure to a drop in consumer demand. They also have customers (the container lines) with record cash buffers, removing counterparty risk.

Ocean carrier shares have fallen further than ship-lessor shares. Zim (NYSE: ZIM) and Matson (NYSE: MATX) are down 6% and 3% YTD, respectively. Not quite as bad as the Dow Jones transport average, but close.

Carriers are exposed to near-term U.S. consumer demand via spot rates. However, roughly half their revenue is covered by long-term contracts that have already been largely negotiated for 2022 at record-high levels. Furthermore, spot rates are still extremely strong. According to Drewry, Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rates (excluding premiums) are more twice what they were at this time last year. They’re more than quintuple rates two years ago.