革ジャンおじさんと愉快な仲間達の掲示板
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>>93
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Data center segment for Nvidia of $320 billion by 2027 would result in 260% growth for Nvidia’s DC from where it stands today and up 120% from DC revenue estimates for end of CY2025. Using Lisa Su’s prediction, there would still be another three years to achieve the additional 120% needed to reach $10 trillion.
Industry analysts have a high-30 percent CAGR for AI accelerators through 2030 ranging from 36.6% to 37.4%. If we round this up to a 40-percent CAGR for Nvidia, then it’s not out of the question that Nvidia ends the decade with $800 billion from AI systems. That would be 450% growth from $145 billion at end of CY2025. This is the most bullish case scenario, which is why my current prediction is a bit more tame (for now) at predicting 233% growth by 2030.
Valuation is one of the most important points that confuses many investors (and short sellers) on why Nvidia’s stock continues to extend. We’ve called the valuation eerily low as most hypergrowth stocks would trade well above historical averages after a 500% move in 18 months. However, due to the 600% increase in earnings and 400% increase in revenue, the stock has remained well below its historical averages, while in fact, trading near October 2022 levels. To put this in perspective, on a forward PE basis, Nvidia was more expensive at the start of 2023 than it is today. Currently, it is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 44 compared to 62 in January 2023. You can view a clip here where I stated the stock was trading eerily low. This is still true today.
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>>92
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We can cross-examine this by looking at comments by CEOs, such as Lisa Su who stated AI accelerators will reach $400 billion by 2027. Nvidia has over 95% market share of data center GPUs but with custom silicon ASICs and more GPUs coming online, this is closer to 80% market share of AI accelerators.
If this estimate materializes, Nvidia’s data center segment will be at $320 billion in 2027, up from data center run rate of $90 billion today, with consensus at roughly $145 billion data center segment by end of calendar year 2025 (consensus is total revenue of $157.51, deducting for other segments).
data center revenue
In my analysis last month on the Blackwell architecture, I made the argument these estimates are too ... [+]I/O FUND
In my analysis last month on the Blackwell architecture, I made the argument these estimates are too low and that my firm expects we will see a $200 billion data center segment by end of CY2025 propelled forward by the B100, B200 and GB200, including the following points: “Taiwan Semi’s CoWos capacity, which is essential for Blackwell’s architecture, is estimated to rise to 40,000 units/month by the end of 2024, which is more than a 150% YoY increase from ~15,000 units/month at the end of 2023. Applied Materials has boosted its forecast for HBM packaging revenue from a prior view for 4X growth to 6X growth this year.”
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