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All three major credit ratings agencies have lowered their outlook on $BA to just above junk - ouch! 速報🚨 :ボーイング 3 大信用格付け機関はすべて、 $BAの見通しをジャンク債よりわずかに高い水準に引き下げました。痛いですね! 午前11:23 · 2024年4月27日 https://x.com/Barchart/status/1784045762348769474
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BoAのMcelligottさん "Regarding the QRA, I expect a modestly bullish Bond reaction, anticipating a significantly lower overall financing estimate to be announced 4/29 (a lumpy reduction downwards to $125B-$150B, vs their prior borrowing estimate being $202B for Apr-Jun period), thanks to strong tax receipts on wages and capital gains, which will then push TGA towards $1T to then be drawn-down from via Govt spending and announced Treasury buybacks..." "... This is constructive for Bonds no doubt, yet meaningfully less market impactful than the Fall 2023 QRA "issuance twist" shock, with Treasury's massive upgrade to Bills versus substantial slowing in Coupon sales, which almost to the day marked the end of the UST long-end "term-premium rebuild" / Duration selloff which had been plaguing markets through impulse tightening of FCI from August into late October of last year (S&P -10.0% / NDX -9.8% / RTY -17.9% btwn start Aug'23 into the QRA initial estimate in late Oct '23)."
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If the Plaza Accord 2.0 doesn't manifest the BOJ will need to defend the Yen and stops buying foreign bonds. US yields will skyrocket, government debt servicing will blow out, debt issuances will have to be reigned in at the treasury, US budgets are blown and the Fed is required to step in to ensure their price stability mandate is adhered to. Musical chairs until someone gives, thats why there is never a free lunch no matter who holds the GRC. プラザ合意 2.0 が実現しなければ、日銀は円を防衛し、外国債券の購入を停止する必要がある。米国の利回りは急騰し、政府債務の返済は破綻し、財務省は債務発行を抑制しなければならなくなり、米国の予算は破綻し、FRB は価格安定の任務が順守されるように介入する必要がある。誰かが譲歩するまで椅子取りゲームが続く。だからこそ、誰が GRC を保有しようと、ただで手に入ることはないのだ。 プラザ合意2.0
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Protesters turn on Biden Reporting from Columbia At the student protests, anger is not reserved solely for the universities. Many are also angry at the US government and President Joe Biden - whom they see as complicit with Israel's war in Gaza. I just got off the phone with Chisato Mimura, a law student and protest leader from Yale. She told me that many students at Yale's encampment blame Biden - a thought I've also heard here at Columbia and from other campuses. "The US is quite literally funding and equipping the weapons used in genocide," she said. "The federal government, Biden, the White House, could act." "But instead, what they're doing is completely putting their full weight behind it," she added. "We are well aware of the prominent role they are playing." (BBC) ゴキラエルへの怒りは、何も大学に止まらず、アメ政府やバイデンに対して 向けられている。エール大の反ゴキのリーダー三村千里?さんと電話で話したが エール大で野営している多くの学生はバイデンを批判していると。 アメ政府は文字通り、ゴキのジェノサイドに資金や武器を与えている。 バイデンやホワイトハウスがゴキのバックにいる。アメがジェノサイド実行に 重要な役割を果たしていると話していた。 エール大の三村千里さんに、エールを送ろう。
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With the increase in low-wage immigrant labor, employment appears strong, but because of low wages, people cannot buy expensive goods, which reduces demand. They buy what they want by paying later with their credit cards, and end up increasing their default rate because they can't pay later and are delinquent.
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Morgan Stanley この前の決算 "Advisory revenues decreased from a year ago on lower completed M&A transactions." IBM今回の決算 "Shares of International Business Machines fell more than 8% in premarket trading on Thursday, as its consulting business faces pressure from enterprises tightening their budgets to cope with an uncertain economy and high interest rates." やっぱIBDのアドバイザリー収入も低調で、IBMのコンサルトビジネスも低調、という事でコーポレートサイドでは全然景気いい感じがしない。 (IBDのアドバイザリーは2年間位ずっとさえない、復活の兆しが無い。GSとか前回よかったところがあったのは多分ARM上場のtransaction feeのおかげ)
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これ、やばくない? Discover Financial, the 6th largest credit card issuer in America, just reported a massive spike in defaults. Their net charge-off rate - an indication of how many accounts are deemed as "uncollectable" - spiked to 5.7% in early 2024. The highest since the GFC. 📈 アメリカで6番目に大きなクレジットカード発行会社であるディスカバー・ファイナンシャルは、債務不履行の大幅な増加を報告した。 同社の純貸倒引当率(回収不能とみなされる口座の数を示す指標)は、2024年初めに5.7%に急上昇した。 世界金融危機以来の最高値。
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5/13(月)の決算発表時に今後のスケジュールと見込み等の発表に期待しています。 Brighter, low-energy OLEDs are going into production this year – but they won’t be coming to TVs just yet Tech Radar Story by Carrie Marshall The best OLED TVs are about to get a whole lot better. A new panel technology known as eLEAP will officially go into production later this year, according to FlatpanelsHD. Although it won't be going into any big-name TVs at first, the new screen technology promises to deliver brightness in excess of 3,000 nits and improved durability, which means that it could make screens last longer, helping to cut down on e-waste. eLeap was developed by Japan Display (JDI), which is a firm that was created by the merger of the display businesses of Sony, Toshiba and Hitachi. And while we first started reporting on it in 2022, it's only just starting to ramp up production with plans to expand this to the mainstream market in late 2024. Although no consumer brands have yet announced plans to use the new tech, the panels are likely to appear in laptops first, with one of the first panels being a 14-inch OLED for portable computers. That'll deliver peak brightness of 1,600 nits, but even brighter panels are imminent. What is eLeap OLED? eLeap – it's an extremely tenuous acronym for "environment positive lithography with maskless deposition, extreme long life, low power and high luminance" – uses light to transfer patterns in the manufacturing of integrated circuits, a process that can deliver increased brightness and increased durability too, which is great news for cutting down on e-waste. This is the first OLED technology to use such a process, and according to Japan Display the production process is currently six months ahead. In the eight months before launch, JDI says it's already achieving production yields of 60%. The higher the yield the more efficient the production and the lower the cost. According to JDI, it will supply eLeap panels "for use in a wide array of end-use applications, including smartwatches and wearables, smartphones, notebook PCs, and automotive displays". TVs are currently conspicuous by their absence, however. That's because the manufacturing capacity isn't there yet to produce larger panels: JDI's plant for that is not expected to be online until 2027.
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現在どうなってんでしょう https://www.columbia.edu/~tmd2142/tds-deep-dive.html There are two pockets of value at the TDS level: 71mn shares of USM = $4.6bn @ $65ps a wireline business generating a bit under $300mn of EBITDA. They are rapidly building out fiber, which is now over one-third of the footprint. We value this at $1.4bn (5x EBITDA), which is a 35% discount to their trailing five years of CapEx TDS has $2.0bn in debt and prefs This gets to a TDS SOTP of $35ps
NEW: 🇯🇵 Japanes…
2024/04/28 00:09
NEW: 🇯🇵 Japanese Yen crashing. Their debt to GDP is ~250%. It’s over.