"Regarding the QRA, I expect a modestly bullish Bond reaction, anticipating a significantly lower overall financing estimate to be announced 4/29 (a lumpy reduction downwards to $125B-$150B, vs their prior borrowing estimate being $202B for Apr-Jun period), thanks to strong tax receipts on wages and capital gains, which will then push TGA towards $1T to then be drawn-down from via Govt spending and announced Treasury buybacks..."
"... This is constructive for Bonds no doubt, yet meaningfully less market impactful than the Fall 2023 QRA "issuance twist" shock, with Treasury's massive upgrade to Bills versus substantial slowing in Coupon sales, which almost to the day marked the end of the UST long-end "term-premium rebuild" / Duration selloff which had been plaguing markets through impulse tightening of FCI from August into late October of last year (S&P -10.0% / NDX -9.8% / RTY -17.9% btwn start Aug'23 into the QRA initial estimate in late Oct '23)."
>>28165
BoAのMcelligottさん
"Regarding the QRA, I expect a modestly bullish Bond reaction, anticipating a significantly lower overall financing estimate to be announced 4/29 (a lumpy reduction downwards to $125B-$150B, vs their prior borrowing estimate being $202B for Apr-Jun period), thanks to strong tax receipts on wages and capital gains, which will then push TGA towards $1T to then be drawn-down from via Govt spending and announced Treasury buybacks..."
"... This is constructive for Bonds no doubt, yet meaningfully less market impactful than the Fall 2023 QRA "issuance twist" shock, with Treasury's massive upgrade to Bills versus substantial slowing in Coupon sales, which almost to the day marked the end of the UST long-end "term-premium rebuild" / Duration selloff which had been plaguing markets through impulse tightening of FCI from August into late October of last year (S&P -10.0% / NDX -9.8% / RTY -17.9% btwn start Aug'23 into the QRA initial estimate in late Oct '23)."