While we see substantial support in Congress for proposals to cut taxes and reform the tax code, our current impression is that market expectations of quick fiscal expansion may be running ahead of political and legislative realities. For example, the federal fiscal position is much less favorable than at the time of earlier tax cuts, in 1981 and 2001. As a share of GDP, federal debt held by the public is expected to be 76.6% in fiscal year 2017, compared to 25.1% in 1981 and 31.4% in 2001. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP over the next five years, compared to projected budget surpluses of 2.0% in 1981 and 3.3% in 2001 (Exhibit 4). Given this fiscal backdrop, many members of Congress may be hesitant to support large deficit-financed tax cuts.
ふと昔のエコノミストの予想を振り返りたくなった。米国ゴールドマンサックスの11月のレポートを見た。こうある。
While we see substantial support in Congress for proposals to cut taxes and reform the tax code, our current impression is that market expectations of quick fiscal expansion may be running ahead of political and legislative realities. For example, the federal fiscal position is much less favorable than at the time of earlier tax cuts, in 1981 and 2001. As a share of GDP, federal debt held by the public is expected to be 76.6% in fiscal year 2017, compared to 25.1% in 1981 and 31.4% in 2001. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP over the next five years, compared to projected budget surpluses of 2.0% in 1981 and 3.3% in 2001 (Exhibit 4). Given this fiscal backdrop, many members of Congress may be hesitant to support large deficit-financed tax cuts.
今見ても実に妥当な見立てではないか。