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> 今度はスペシャルサービス率のレポート。 > > ● Special Servicing Rate Rises Modestly in May 2024, Office Sees First Decline this Year > Treppのスペシャルサービス率は5月に10bp押し上げられて8.21 %となった。この上昇は先月の80bpの急騰と比較すれば穏やかだが、全体の率はいまや2021年6月以来で最高レベルだ。この率は2024年に入って毎月上昇してきて、2023年に一斉処分された際にマークした6.78 %より1.43 %高い。 > The Trepp CMBS Special Servicing Rate pushed higher in May, up 10 basis points to 8.21%. Though this increase was modest compared to the 80 basis point leap a month prior, the overall rate is now at its highest level since June 2021. The rate has increased every month of 2024 and is now 1.43% higher than the 6.78% mark that it closed out in 2023. * スクショはPDFより。 https://www.trepp.com/hubfs/Trepp%20CMBS%20Special%20Servicing%20Report%20May%202024.pdf
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大体、米金利は「plateu and higher」が今回のメッセージなのに、なぜに金融株はバーゲン状態なんでしょうね~。
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★★Toyota lost over $15 billion in market value last week after being caught falsifying tests (CNBC) PUBLISHED SUN, JUN 9 202411:46 PM EDTUPDATED MON, JUN 10 20248:29 AM EDT KEY POINTS ●Toyota shares have plunged more than 5% since May 31, the last trading day before the scandal broke on June 3. Shares of Mazda saw a larger loss, falling 7.7% since May 31. ●The wide-ranging inspection by the transport ministry also found that irregularities were also found in certification applications from automakers Honda, Suzuki and Yamaha Motor. In this article Shares of Japanese automakers have largely plunged since the country’s Transport Ministry found false data used to certify certain models a week ago on Monday. The stock of Japan’s largest carmaker, Toyota, fell more than 5.4% last week, after the scandal broke on June 3, but is recovering on Monday. The automaker lost 2.45 trillion Japanese yen ($15.62 billion) in market value last week alone. Shares of Mazda , the country’s second-largest automaker, dropped 7.7% in the same period, and lost 80.33 billion yen in market capitalization last week. The wide-ranging inspection by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism also found irregularities in certification applications by other automakers Honda, Suzuki and Yamaha. Last week, Honda’ s stock fell 5.75% and Yamaha Motor lost 2.2%, while Suzuki Motor inched down 0.3%. Shares of all those companies were trading higher Monday. Toyota was up 1.7%, Honda gained 2.13% and Mazda increased 1.7%. Suzuki and Yamaha were also marginally higher. All five companies had submitted false test data, or in the case of Toyota and Mazda, falsified the vehicles used in crash tests. Toyota announced on June 3, following the ministry’s investigation report, that it will temporarily halt shipments and sales of three models currently manufactured in Japan, namely the Corolla Fielder, Corolla Axio and Yaris Cross. Toyota’s chairman, Akio Toyoda, apologized to the company’s customers and stakeholders, acknowledging that seven of its models were “tested using methods that differ from the standards defined by the national authorities.” Separately, Mazda said it had suspended the Roadster RF and Mazda 2 from May 30. Both companies however, said that customers can still continue to drive their cars. The Transport Ministry said it will conduct on-site inspections of the five companies where misconduct was reported. The inspection into Japanese automakers comes after Toyota’s Daihatsu unit said in December it will halt shipments of all vehicles both overseas and in Japan. It came after an investigation into a safety scandal found issues at some 64 models, including 22 sold under the Toyota brand. Daihatsu said in April last year it had rigged side-collision safety tests carried out for 88,000 small cars, most of which were sold under the Toyota brand. Take care LMAO
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米国国際貿易委員会(USITC)。 東南アジアからの太陽光発電輸入に対する関税を承認。 www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2024/06/trade-commission-says-yes-to-tariffs-on-solar-imports-from-southeast-asia/ relocating their supply chains in the last two years to produce non-circumvention solar products。 過去 2 年間にサプライチェーンを再配置。迂回しない太陽光発電製品を生産。 imports from the four countries have never been higher in the United States. 米国では4か国からの輸入がこれまでになく増加している。 予備調査。 これら4カ国が太陽電池とモジュールの不法ダンピングと補助金支給に関与しているという実質的かつ詳細な証拠が得られた。 米国企業と米国労働者に損害。 米国商務省が4カ国すべてによるダンピングと補助金に関する重要な調査を進めることを期待している。 暫定的な相殺関税の決定は2024年7月18日頃に予定。 暫定的な反ダンピング関税の決定は2024年10月1日頃に予定。 海外記事。solarpowerworld。 連邦官報。federalregister。 これの翻訳。中国迂回しなくても。やべーって印象。。翻訳とか解釈違うならいいが。。
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【㌦ペソ週〆】 昨夜はオブラドル現大統領の記者懇での、秋の改革推進発言が効いたようだな😓 18.4137とか酷すぎ‥ペソ崩壊、フリーフォール、地滑りとか書かれてる😅 統治体制改革とはいえ、評論家の間ではマーケットに良くない改革と捉えられているようだ😂 まぁ今はとにもかくにもファンダメンタルだが、テクニカル的にはとどめを刺された形状(the last nail in the coffin)だと🤣 気力無いのであとは📱自動翻訳で読んでくらさい🙂↕️ FXStreet) * Mexican Peso extends freefall amid political uncertainty around Morena’s victory * Mexican Peso collapses to 18.40 against USD as President AMLO insists on controversial reforms (judicial and transparency reforms) * Mexican Peso landslide continues on investors’ fears * Critics say newly elected government reforms are anti-democratic and market-negative. 以下テクニカル: * USD/MXN achieves a fifth daily close above a four-year-old downslope resistance trendline, the last nail in the coffin for the Mexican Peso's strength. * next resistance would be the October 6 high of 18.48, which could open the door to challenging the psychological 19.00 figure. Once that level is breached, on March 20, 2023, a high of 19.23 would follow. If all those levels are surpassed, the exotic pair could hit 20.00, and reach a new 18-month high. * the short and intermediate-term trends are bullish. Given “the trend is your friend”, the odds favor a continuation higher. The long-term trend is probably still bearish, suggesting moderate background risks continue.
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The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter BREAKING: GameStop stock, $GME, erases massive 40% premarket gain and falls 20% after reporting weak earnings. That's a 60% swing in the stock in a matter of hours after Gamestop reported that it lost $32 million in Q1 2024. They also announced another share issuance of 75 million shares. Quarterly sales dropped to $881.8 million from $1.24 billion a year ago. All eyes are on the upcoming "Roaring Kitty" livestream. GameStop, $GME, pre-released their earnings this morning. This is likely because the results were so weak yet the market is so strong. Can the meme stock rally continue to push higher after this report?
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"The higher unemployment rate... should keep September interest rate cut squarely on the table. The higher unemployment rate, now 0.6% above the cycle low, and downward revisions to prior months’ payroll numbers tell a story of deteriorating labor market." - Bloomberg 「失業率の上昇により、9月の利下げは確実に検討されるはずだ。失業率の上昇は現在、サイクルの最低値を0.6%上回っており、前月の雇用者数の下方修正は労働市場の悪化を物語っている。」 - ブルームバーグ
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The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter BREAKING: In the first 4 months of 2024, the US has seen 210 corporate bankruptcies, 2nd highest number since 2012. In April alone, S&P Global recorded 66 new bankruptcy filings. This is up from 61 in March and is the 3rd highest monthly number since the 2020 pandemic. The most bankruptcies have seen Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors, at 28 and 27 respectively. Higher rates for longer have are taking their toll on US corporates. Is this really a "soft landing?" 速報:2024年1~4月の米国企業倒産件数は210件で、2012年以来2番目に多い。 4月だけで、S&Pグローバルは66件の新規倒産申請を記録した。 これは3月の61件から増加し、2020年のパンデミック以降、月間で3番目に多い件数である。 倒産件数が最も多かったのは、消費者裁量部門が28件、ヘルスケア部門が27件であった。 長期化する金利上昇が米国企業に打撃を与えている。 これは本当に "ソフトランディング "なのだろうか?
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予想どおり、しっかり 週足チャートも、いいかたちだ 次週から、置いて行かれた方による 新規買い、買増しも勢いづき 高値警戒こなしつつ、一段強い展開か 上値は断然Higherだから ?? 個人の空売り、論外、厳禁(自滅志願者向け) 空売り機関もここでは手控え方針だろう(参戦しても2K遥か超えてから) (-_-) …
円安の理由を考えてみた2 🟢…
2024/06/14 14:49
円安の理由を考えてみた2 🟢【日本】YCC(イールドカーブ・コントロール)の廃止 ├日本国債の利回り上昇 │├債券、株式、不動産(=日本経済)が死亡 │└日銀保有の国債も評価損で赤字➔円安 └国債利払い増加 ├赤字国債発行量増加➔円安 └日銀の臨時国債買入オペ➔円安 ※日本はGDP比で世界でダントツの量の国債を発行したため、国債の金利を上昇させることができなくなった。そのため、2016年から2024年までYCC(イールドカーブ・コントロール)をして、国債の金利を押さえつけていた。 🟢【アメリカ】資産効果でインフレ継続➔higher for longer金利高止まり ├FANG+等のIT・AI時代の勝者は全てアメリカ企業 │├全世界からお金がFANG+企業など強い企業に集まる➔ドル高 │└資産効果➔インフレ➔政策金利上昇➔ドル高 ├仮にアメリカのバブルが崩壊した場合でも… │└経済が強い企業が多い➔経済が復活する➔ドル高 └最近のドル高傾向がさらなるドル高を呼び込む └通貨高が継続するとリスクオフ資産だとみなされる └現在のロシア・ウクライナ戦争、中東紛争➔遠く戦争は買い➔ドル高 ※昔の日本は強い企業が多く、その結果、バブル崩壊後も円高が長く続いた。また、現在の米ドルと同様に、円は円高が長く続いた時代にはリスクオフ資産とみなされ、経済とは無関係に円高になった。