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▼Probability logic (publicly available) Unless there is an unexpected event, such as war, disaster, or natural disaster, the exchange rate will be 150-180 positive in 2024. Even if there is a sudden unexpected event, even if the downside is negative to 110, it will only be a maximum limit of -50, and stock prices have no limit and can go up to +50 or more, so the latter is the safer option in terms of overall probability. (In case of “DD” which is Double Down case, you have to think about other tactics as you know well) Therefore, as of 4/29/2024, it is fine to make further decisions. (Please do so at your own risk (disclaimer) まだまだ、英語も若い者には負けんぞ。 と、ワシは戦時中から ドキドキワクワクしておる。 歴史は繰り返す。 ほっほっほ。 ほー!
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Probability logic (publicly available) Unless there is an unexpected event, such as war, disaster, or natural disaster, the exchange rate will be 150-180 positive in 2024. Even if there is a sudden unexpected event, even if the downside is negative to 110, it will only be a maximum limit of -50, and stock prices have no limit and can go up to +50 or more, so the latter is the safer option in terms of overall probability. (In case of double Down, you have to think about other tactics as you know well) Therefore, as of 4/29/2024, it is fine to make further decisions. (Please do so at your own risk (disclaimer)
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According to th…
2024/05/09 23:19
According to this chart, there is a high probability of a recession in the following months. Since the 60’s continuing claims 2Y average slope turning up had only 1 fail signal. Is this time different? https://x.com/i3_invest/status/1788548368093847775