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(続き) We can cross-examine this by looking at comments by CEOs, such as Lisa Su who stated AI accelerators will reach $400 billion by 2027. Nvidia has over 95% market share of data center GPUs but with custom silicon ASICs and more GPUs coming online, this is closer to 80% market share of AI accelerators. If this estimate materializes, Nvidia’s data center segment will be at $320 billion in 2027, up from data center run rate of $90 billion today, with consensus at roughly $145 billion data center segment by end of calendar year 2025 (consensus is total revenue of $157.51, deducting for other segments). data center revenue In my analysis last month on the Blackwell architecture, I made the argument these estimates are too ... [+]I/O FUND In my analysis last month on the Blackwell architecture, I made the argument these estimates are too low and that my firm expects we will see a $200 billion data center segment by end of CY2025 propelled forward by the B100, B200 and GB200, including the following points: “Taiwan Semi’s CoWos capacity, which is essential for Blackwell’s architecture, is estimated to rise to 40,000 units/month by the end of 2024, which is more than a 150% YoY increase from ~15,000 units/month at the end of 2023. Applied Materials has boosted its forecast for HBM packaging revenue from a prior view for 4X growth to 6X growth this year.” (続く)
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(続き) According to Next Platform, Meta has roughly 600,000 GPUs deployed including previous generations, such as Ampere. This could include some from AMD, although AMD is more likely to ramp in 2025 and beyond. Right now, Nvidia has a $100 billion run rate on its data center compared to AMD’s $4 billion, therefore, any portion of GPUs from AMD is nominal as it stands for 2024. If we look closer at semantics, Huang used the word “millions” and not the singular word “million,” and “data centers” rather than the singular “data center.” Therefore, my firm is making the assumption that companies like Meta will grow their data center GPUs by a minimum of 233% from 600K to 2M by 2030. Broadcom shares a similar view, noting that management expects million-GPU clusters by 2027, compared to clusters with tens of thousands of GPUs today. This is even more bullish than Jensen Huang’s comments. Coming back to Meta, even with 600,000 H100 equivalents, it’s building clusters of 24,000 GPUs. In order to see singular clusters scale to the hundreds of thousands and millions, as Broadcom is predicting, we would need to see GPU shipments far in excess of those levels. This alone could get us to $10 trillion market cap based off Big Tech’s data centers, and we have not factored in the enterprise. The enterprise includes companies like the Fortune 500 or Global 2000 that build on-premise AI systems. (続く)
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(続き) "Millions of GPU Data Centers are Coming.” On June 2nd, Jensen Huang made a very important statement about the future of AI that answers quite succinctly why Nvidia is on the verge of becoming the World’s Most Valuable Company: Forbes Daily: Join over 1 million Forbes Daily subscribers and get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday. And so the amount of generation we're going to do in the future is going to be extraordinary.” - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, Computex keynote Today, there are tens-of-thousands of GPUs in data centers. By end of 2025, there will be hundreds-of-thousands of GPUs in data centers. Due to the market’s forward-looking nature, 2025 is getting close to being fully priced in. Here is a slide of what this looks like from the perspective of scaling the ethernet networking to support a million-plus GPU cluster. Today, there are tens-of-thousands of GPUs in data centers. By end of 2025, there will be ... [+]NVIDIA, COMPUTEX KEYNOTE PRESENTATION Here’s what we know about Big Tech’s purchases, thus far. Microsoft is reportedly looking to triple its GPU supply to 1.8 million GPUs this year to meet elevated demand for Azure, while Meta has disclosed its GPU orders with an announcement for 150,000 H100s last year and 350,000 H100s or H100-equivalents this year. Musk announced that X’s 100,000 H100 cluster would be online in a few months and hinted at a possible 300,000 B200 GPU purchase. (続く)
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(続き) Yesterday, Nvidia officially surpassed Apple in market cap, which means I delivered on my prediction 2 years early. This lends itself to the question, what do I foresee next for Nvidia, and how am I approaching this heavy hitter in AI. My firm champions full transparency by issuing trade alerts for every buy and sell we make; thus, I’ve included at the end a transparent discussion on how my firm is managing our position today. But first, I unpack why I believe Nvidia can achieve an astonishing $10 trillion market cap by 2030. As you’ll see from the key points to my thesis, there is a bull case where a $10T market cap estimate in a little over six years’ time is not high enough. “The days of millions of GPU data centers are coming. And the reason for that is very simple. Of course, we want to train much larger models. But very importantly, in the future, almost every interaction you have with the Internet or with a computer will likely have a generative AI running in the cloud somewhere. And that generative AI is working with you, interacting with you, generating videos or images or text or maybe a digital human. And so you're interacting with your computer almost all the time, and there's always a generative AI connected to that. Some of it is on-prem, some of it is on your device and a lot of it could be in the cloud [...] (続く)
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Analyst Sees a New $25 Billion “Opportunity” for NVIDIA Corp アナリストはNVIDIA Corpにとって新たな250億ドルの「可能性」を見ている 今日のYahoo Newsから。
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zerohedge @zerohedge Bidenomics Implodes: Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Slumps To 7 Month Low In 5-Sigma Miss バイデノミクス崩壊:消費者センチメントが予想外に落ち込み、7ヶ月ぶりの低水準に。 zerohedge.comから 午後11:36 · 2024年6月14日 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1801624683323793528 UMich: buying conditions for durable goods crater. The Fed is officially behind the curve UMich:耐久消費財の購入条件が悪化。FRBは正式に出遅れた https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1801625128184238147
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President Donald J. Trump VOTE FOR TRUMP! Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT!!! トランプに投票しよう! ビットコインマイニングはCBDC(中央銀行発行デジタル通貨)に対する最後の防衛線かもしれない。バイデンのビットコイン嫌いは、中国、ロシア、急進的な共産主義左派に利益をもたらすだけだ。私たちは、残りのビットコインをすべてMADE IN THE USAにしたい!!!そうすることで、私たちはエネルギーの支配者になることができる!!! https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/trump-is-the-best-choice-for-bitcoin
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President Donald J. Trump Corrupt Soros backed Manhattan D.A, Alvin Bragg, at the direction of Crooked Joe Biden and his DOJ, has always known that there was NO CRIME in the Case he filed against me. He didn’t even want to bring this “Zombie Case,” but when forced to attack me for Election Interference purposes, Bragg attempted to make it look as bad as possible by “stacking the counts” - A TOTAL SCAM. The reality is that the whole Hoax is just about Legal Expenses being paid and marked as….Legal Expenses. 悪徳ソロスが支援するマンハッタン検事アルビン・ブラッグは、ペテン師ジョー・バイデンと彼の司法省の指示のもと、私に対して起こした裁判に犯罪がないことを常に知っていた。彼はこの "ゾンビ裁判 "を起こすことさえ望まなかったが、選挙妨害目的で私を攻撃せざるを得なくなったとき、ブラッグは " 罪状を積み重ねる " ことで、できるだけ悪いように見せかけようとした- 完全な詐欺だ。現実には、すべてのでっち上げは、弁護士費用が支払われ、弁護士費用と表示されただけなのだ。 1/2
(続き) Data cente…
2024/06/15 05:37
(続き) Data center segment for Nvidia of $320 billion by 2027 would result in 260% growth for Nvidia’s DC from where it stands today and up 120% from DC revenue estimates for end of CY2025. Using Lisa Su’s prediction, there would still be another three years to achieve the additional 120% needed to reach $10 trillion. Industry analysts have a high-30 percent CAGR for AI accelerators through 2030 ranging from 36.6% to 37.4%. If we round this up to a 40-percent CAGR for Nvidia, then it’s not out of the question that Nvidia ends the decade with $800 billion from AI systems. That would be 450% growth from $145 billion at end of CY2025. This is the most bullish case scenario, which is why my current prediction is a bit more tame (for now) at predicting 233% growth by 2030. Valuation is one of the most important points that confuses many investors (and short sellers) on why Nvidia’s stock continues to extend. We’ve called the valuation eerily low as most hypergrowth stocks would trade well above historical averages after a 500% move in 18 months. However, due to the 600% increase in earnings and 400% increase in revenue, the stock has remained well below its historical averages, while in fact, trading near October 2022 levels. To put this in perspective, on a forward PE basis, Nvidia was more expensive at the start of 2023 than it is today. Currently, it is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 44 compared to 62 in January 2023. You can view a clip here where I stated the stock was trading eerily low. This is still true today. (終)