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Financial conditions in the US are tightening as rates rise, equities fall and we see liquidity diminishing. This setup could be set to continue as long as we see: 1) Signs of inflation remaining sticky or re-accelerating 2) The Fed cautious about the timing of cutting 3) Large deficit spending amid rising rates causing interest rate spend to surge (could hit $1.6T by Dec y/y w/o a rate cut) 米国の金融環境は、金利が上昇し、株価が下落し、流動性が減少する中で引き締まっています。 この設定は、次のことが確認される限り継続するように設定できます。 1) インフレが依然として低迷しているか、再加速している兆候 2) 利下げのタイミングに慎重なFRB 3) 金利上昇による多額の財政赤字により金利支出が急増(12月までに前年比1.6兆ドルに達する可能性あり) by Markets and Mayhem
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ダイモンCEOがスタグフ懸念で以下のこと、言ってました。この方が言ってるのですからやばいと思います。 Real estate’s stagflation nightmare Stagflation, the portmanteau of low growth and high inflation that recalls the toxic economy of the 1970s, was one of the main fears of more pessimistic economists back in early 2023 and late 2022, when inflation was still near a 40-year high. Leading voices like Queens’ College, Cambridge president Mohamed El-Erian warned that inflation could become “sticky” at 3% to 4%, leading to either stagflation, or a recession if the Federal Reserve was forced to raise rates more than the economy could withstand.
ホントshelterはstic…
2024/05/15 22:12
ホントshelterはstickyですねー