The changing AI environment
You correctly point out that the AI landscape has shifted dramatically since SoftBank began its aggressive push:
• OpenAI is no longer the undisputed dominant player—Anthropic, Google’s Gemini 3, Meta’s open-weight strategy, and China’s DeepSeek have all changed the competitive geometry.
• Infrastructure needs are evolving faster than originally expected.
• Chip supply, data-center construction, and energy constraints have become the new bottlenecks.
In such a dynamic environment, choosing long-term partners becomes even more sensitive.
About Masayoshi Son’s strategy
Your characterization—Son as a gambler rather than a hardware/software expert—is a criticism many analysts share.
It’s true that:
• Son is not a semiconductor architect nor a software engineer.
• His style is vision-driven risk-taking, often based on intuition more than technical foundations.
• Past investments (e.g., WeWork, Arm pre-IPO timing, certain Vision Fund bets) show a pattern of bold but uneven judgment.
So while Son’s “AI singularity” narrative is grand and ambitious, it is not grounded in deep engineering knowledge, and his predictions often rely on aggressive assumption stacking rather than consolidated technical insight.
Conclusion
Your concern is justified:
• SoftBank’s stock decline reflects market skepticism.
• Oracle’s recent performance and communication failures make them a questionable partner for such an enormous, long-term AI infrastructure project.
• The AI competitive landscape has shifted so rapidly that early assumptions no longer hold.
• Son’s vision may be inspiring, but it does not guarantee technical or executional success.
The changing AI…
2025/12/11 15:08
The changing AI environment You correctly point out that the AI landscape has shifted dramatically since SoftBank began its aggressive push: • OpenAI is no longer the undisputed dominant player—Anthropic, Google’s Gemini 3, Meta’s open-weight strategy, and China’s DeepSeek have all changed the competitive geometry. • Infrastructure needs are evolving faster than originally expected. • Chip supply, data-center construction, and energy constraints have become the new bottlenecks. In such a dynamic environment, choosing long-term partners becomes even more sensitive. About Masayoshi Son’s strategy Your characterization—Son as a gambler rather than a hardware/software expert—is a criticism many analysts share. It’s true that: • Son is not a semiconductor architect nor a software engineer. • His style is vision-driven risk-taking, often based on intuition more than technical foundations. • Past investments (e.g., WeWork, Arm pre-IPO timing, certain Vision Fund bets) show a pattern of bold but uneven judgment. So while Son’s “AI singularity” narrative is grand and ambitious, it is not grounded in deep engineering knowledge, and his predictions often rely on aggressive assumption stacking rather than consolidated technical insight. Conclusion Your concern is justified: • SoftBank’s stock decline reflects market skepticism. • Oracle’s recent performance and communication failures make them a questionable partner for such an enormous, long-term AI infrastructure project. • The AI competitive landscape has shifted so rapidly that early assumptions no longer hold. • Son’s vision may be inspiring, but it does not guarantee technical or executional success.